Predicted impact of the coronavirus on playing card prices

[EndersGame]

A huge economic downturn seems inevitable at this point. People won't have as much disposable income, so demand will drop. Simultaneously we'll see some collectors needing to sell off their luxuries to get extra money to get through the hard times, so supply will increase. With demand dropping and supply increasing, we can expect to see prices of rare collectable decks drop significantly.

For similar reasons, it could become harder for Kickstarter projects to get funded, because people are going to be much more careful about where they put their money. Plus people who are part-time creators will be focusing on making ends meet rather than running creative side hobbies on the side, so I think we'll see the overall number of projects drop off.

What do others think? Any more thoughts on how the coronavirus crisis might impact the playing card industry, including the availability and prices of custom decks for collectors?

[Fud]

I think there are several buckets of people who buy cards.

This forum seems to have a bias towards more of the collector audience, which I expect to show more discernment to purchases in the future meaning lower sales on luxury decks.

The biggest market in my experience is the casual gamer, who will 1) have less money, but 2) have much more free time. I expect this to bias sales towards non-luxury decks, again lowering sales on luxury decks but increasing sales on lower priced decks.

The other markets (cardists, collectors, magicians etc) - they buy according to need, and if the need for their hobby drops (from social interaction, cash etc), so will the spending.

So I expect the net winners to be cheaper decks, and the net losers to be more expensive decks. I have seen that tide turning already.

[guru]

You are spot on EndersGame....This industry will see a major shift. Apart from reduced & careful spending decreasing the uptake on luxury decks, people will be more thoughtful around what they are purchasing & why.

Color swaps on card back or tuck swaps could take a hit as well. I'm glad that I'd been planning not to do color ways or tuck redesign (keeping same cards) for future projects like Mythos & Bosch. Since last week, I received 4 orders for the handcrafted deck. I am not sure what is the case there and how did 4 customers in different parts of the world ordered the handcrafted deck in the space of 4 days. The deck is expensive for sure but being entirely handmade, it provides an altogether different value proposition than some luxury machine produced decks with only foil variations (single, multi, different foils etc.) In the end, shiny things aren't necessarily precious things - all that glitters is not gold.

[James Johnson]

I’m hoping my prediction is correct... if things turn around for the better in the next couple months (success on lowering numbers, developments for vaccines and treatments, etc...) I really think there will be a huge swing up on the other side of this.

It’s terrible to say it this way, but most people that get thru this will have the “missed the bullet” euphoria and usually there is a uptick on spending. The bigger problem, like a few people I’ve talked with is there may be an avalanche of Kickstarter projects coming which might overwhelm anyone trying to decide what they want to invest in.

I stupidly stumbled onto possibly a way to be somewhat successful as I tried to not only do something completely different art wise than what’s out there, but also designed the cards to be both a standard deck as well as a custom deck for a game I created. It may be how others will approach going forward to widen the possibility of being successful? Don’t know, but keeping my fingers crossed like everyone else

[Outsider]

I do not plan to back any KS for the time being, with factories closed it seems pointless right now, especially since backlog at the factories has put a lot of decks I backed last year still awaiting delivery. Otherwise nothing has changed, and if something did change in terms of finances, I would stop buying cards entirely, not switch to cheaper cards or merely buy fewer cards.

[montenzi]

Nobody knows. It's unclear how to finish current projects, so launching new Kickstarters is not the best idea.

I'll design at least one more deck and most likely will start doing something different. But let's wait.

[willroya]

So far I have not seen an impact on sales and our web traffic is significantly up. I think the traffic has a lot to do with people searching for our game instruction content, stuck at home, etc.

Also our newest kickstarter is off to a good start. I think since most of the decks I sell and produce are in the low to mid range it will not impact me as much as it would the more expensive coveted deck brands and the secondary speculative market.

I also think that playing cards are a "comfort" item to a lot of people and even casual collectors will continue to buy if their budget allows, plus people will always want them for their regular game play, magic tricks, etc.

Other online non-essential "comfort" brands such as apparel, specialty foods, etc. seem to be doing ok so far as well, from what I have heard in the eCommerce forums I monitor.

Really hoping this will all blow over soon and we will come out much stronger. Also USPCC is still working remotely to some degree (preparing contracts, etc.) so that will help speed things up once the factory reopens.

[Bradius]

Will, thanks for your thoughts on this subject. I am intrigued by your classification of the hobby as more of a "comfort" category. In my case, I would tend to agree with you. In the past, when I was collecting coins and rare books, the cost to collect those items was excessive to my current budget. Playing cards, especially the lower end custom playing cards, can fit nicely in most budgets without getting excessively demanding on a decent budget. I guess it all comes down to a person's finances where this fits in. Certainly there are a lot more expensive things to collect. I also think some expensive decks, like those by Lotrek, will continue to do fairly well. He may lose a few to a resulting economic downturn. However, I think he has a strong enough demand that he can continue with his operations fine.

When I did first get started in playing cards, I did manage to find someone on eBay that was selling their entire collection of about 150 decent decks that I got fairly cheap. If folks get out of collecting playing cards, we may see more of that. If anything, finding more of those being sold on eBay would be a sign of the collapsing of the collecting market.

[Eric Lee]

I'm wondering if there's going to be a burst of deck designs flooding KS and the market. I say that as now that freelance jobs and economy may have slowed down and designers have more time on their hands. Very sad situation for freelancers and let's hope things improve for them soon.

With the extra time, they'll have more time to crank out better quality designs rather than say that the deck was years in the making but it's just a JAB job. Can any designers add their input on this?

[MagikFingerz]

I'm wondering if there's going to be a burst of deck designs flooding KS and the market. I say that as now that freelance jobs and economy may have slowed down and designers have more time on their hands. Very sad situation for freelancers and let's hope things improve for them soon.

With the extra time, they'll have more time to crank out better quality designs rather than say that the deck was years in the making but it's just a JAB job. Can any designers add their input on this?

That's very interesting, I hadn't considered there'd be more designs/campaigns, but it makes sense.

This combined with people having less disposable income (I don't have an as optimistic view on this as some of the others here*) I think might be a bad combo.

*Many people being out of work is one thing (unemployment claims reaching record highs both in the US and here in Norway, I'm guessing many other countries too), but there are other effects of this as well. One example is oil prices going down, which devalues at least our currency and leads to us having less buying power internationally (i.e. playing cards from the US). I'm sure there are other national/international consequences affecting people's economy that aren't immediately apparent.

[montenzi]

I'm wondering if there's going to be a burst of deck designs flooding KS and the market. I say that as now that freelance jobs and economy may have slowed down and designers have more time on their hands. Very sad situation for freelancers and let's hope things improve for them soon.

With the extra time, they'll have more time to crank out better quality designs rather than say that the deck was years in the making but it's just a JAB job. Can any designers add their input on this?

There are millions of millions of freelancers and people who are so good at drawing. But you cannot live on this tiny profit if you produce one or two decks per year. It's all about fun for most.

If you want "better quality designs," be ready to pay more to make this business attractive for casual designers. IMHO.

Having a backup plan (full-time job or other businesses) is always a good idea.

[macstrat]

Other online non-essential "comfort" brands such as apparel, specialty foods, etc. seem to be doing ok so far as well, from what I have heard in the eCommerce forums I monitor.

So I lost my job in October and started a fine art printing business. While I have seen a massive increase in traffic, there was also a significant drop in sale starting in about the middle of February. I am also aware this is a more niche, and more expensive "luxury item." $15 per deck vs $30 for an archival 8x10 matted print. I think it comes down to how people are viewing usage as you get much more use out of a deck of cards than an art print. I don't disagree with this at all, I think it just depends on the product. For me, cards are most definitely a comfort item.

[EndersGame]

On the other hand, the coronavirus can also give people new ideas for how to use playing cards in a positive way. See this article:

Using Playing Cards in the War against COVID-19

[macstrat]

On the other hand, the coronavirus can also give people new ideas for how to use playing cards in a positive way. See this article:

Using Playing Cards in the War against COVID-19

I'm not disagreeing at all. Playing cards serve a much higher purpose than what I do. My comments reflect more the need for useful luxuries, like playing cards, speciality foods, etc. as opposed to purely aesthetic luxuries, like what I produce especially during times like these.

[hsbc]

Over the past few months it seems like aftermarket prices are dropping and Kickstarter campaigns are having more trouble funding - and sadly I think this is about to get worse, since in the US federal student loans payment are resuming for the first time since covid and I imagine there's a lot of overlap there with the cardistry/luxury market at large